Demographic population model

The demographic module is the sole owner of the population used by the current NCD models. It tracks people by sex and single year of age from 0 to 100.

Each annual step applies births, migration, ageing and mortality. The oldest age group is retained rather than discarded when the population ages. Baseline all-cause mortality is applied once by this module. Disease models report changes in cause-specific mortality; the annual coordinator reconciles those changes and returns one set of deaths and survivors.

Disease modules do not own additional national populations. They receive the demographic population needed to calculate opening prevalence, population at risk and annual disease transitions. Their closing living states are then rebased to the demographic survivors before the next year.

Country and time horizon are runtime inputs. Baseline and comparison use the same opening population and the same demographic graph.

The current source is botech-demographic-model (opens in a new tab). Its repository contains the graph, module contract, data requirements and current validation commands.