Modelling Components
Demographic Model

Demographic population model

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Overview

This demographic model simulates population dynamics in any country over time, incorporating key demographic processes including births, deaths, and migration. The model is designed to track population changes while accounting for age structure and gender distribution. Time horizon can be set from 1950 to 2100 or any length in-between these.

The model consists of three main components:

  1. Healthy population: The core state representing the living population, by age and sex
  2. Births: A state tracking new additions to the population
  3. Mortality: A state capturing deaths in the population

Key interactions within the model include:

  • Population generates births based on age-specific fertility rates
  • Births are distributed into the population by gender using sex ratios
  • Population is affected by migration flows
  • Deaths are calculated using mortality rates and removed from the healthy population
  • The population ages annually through the simulation period

The model executes these processes in a specific order through subroutines:

  1. Initial population balance generation
  2. Birth rate calculations
  3. Population aging
  4. Migration adjustments
  5. Mortality calculations
  6. Integration of new births
  7. State updates (flushing)

Assumptions

  1. Initial population

  2. Age specific fertility rates

  3. Net migration rates

  4. Lifetable mortality rates

  5. Sex-ratio at birth

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