NCD modelling documentation

The current platform compiles independently owned demographic, disease, risk-factor, intervention and metric modules into reproducible baseline and comparison runs.

The demographic module owns one population. Disease modules describe marginal disease processes over that population. Risk-factor and intervention modules publish declared effects. The compiler connects compatible outputs and inputs, then the Rust and WebAssembly runtime executes the model one year at a time. Annual mortality reconciliation returns one set of deaths and survivors before the next year begins. Health metrics are calculated from the resulting runtime outputs.

The baseline and comparison model have the same nodes, links and execution order. Selecting an intervention changes comparison parameter values; it does not insert comparison-only logic.

These pages explain the current methods in ordinary language. The source repositories remain authoritative for graphs, contracts, parameters, evidence and limitations. The NCD client is a selection, parameter-editing and results interface over that modelling system.

Start with how the current models fit together, then use the disease and risk-factor pages for the active module boundaries.